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North-South high-speed railway, a boost for Vietnams economy A formidable rival to aviation

With the view that ticket prices must be competitive with aviation and affordable for the majority of people, the North-South high-speed railway is expected to compete directly with the aviation industry in the future.

According to the draft report of MOT, the expected ticket price of the North-South high-speed railway (HSR) is about 75% of the average ticket price of low-cost and economy airfares. Of which, each kilometer of first-class ticket is expected to be 0,18 USD (VIP compartment), 0,074 USD for second-class and 0,044 USD for third-class. Thus, the route Ha Noi – Ho Chi Minh City is 1.541 km long, first class high-speed train ticket is about 6,9 million VND/way; second class is 2,9 million VND/way and third class is 1,7 million VND/way.

Overall, the proposed ticket prices are not much different from those of countries with similar conditions to Vietnam. Specifically, the Beijing - Shanghai (China) high-speed railway line with a length of 1.318 km and a maximum speed of 350 km/hour is also divided into many ticket price classes ranging from 2 - 8 million VND/way, equivalent to 0,06 - 0,2 USD/km. The longest high-speed railway line in Japan connecting Tokyo and Aomori has a regular ticket price of about 3 million VND/way; first class 4 million VND/way, and Gran Class seats over 5 million VND/way, averaging from 0,18 - 0,3 USD/km corresponding to each seat class. Indonesia has a single high-speed railway line named Whoosh connecting the country's two leading cities, Jakarta and Bandung, with a design speed of 2 km/hour. The current average fares for economy, business and first class are USD 350/km; USD 3/km and USD 0,11/km respectively.

North-South high-speed railway, a boost for Vietnams economy A formidable rival to aviation

The Ministry of Transport calculates that the price of high-speed railway tickets is expected to increase by 3% per year to compensate for inflation (calculated for a 3-year ticket price increase).

Discuss further with Thanh Nien, the representative of the Ministry of Transport said that the above estimated ticket price is only the calculation of the consulting unit based on comparisons with the current airfare. This is not a fixed price when the project is put into operation in the next 10 years (as expected) with the constant fluctuations of the market and the economy. The consistent view of the Ministry of Transport is that the North-South high-speed train ticket price must always ensure competitiveness with aviation, ensuring that it is suitable for people's ability to pay. After the North-South high-speed train route is completed, the train ticket price will be calculated appropriately according to 3 ticket classes so that everyone can access and take the train according to the low to high fare range, depending on each train class according to the train schedule. For example, there will be trains that stop at all 23 stations, some trains only stop at 10 stations, from which the train speed will also be different. It is estimated that the highest ticket price for the best quality, fastest train class will be about 70-75% of the airfare. Not to mention there are also monthly tickets, tickets for frequent passengers...

“The high-speed railway ensures almost absolute accuracy in terms of time. When put into operation, a suitable train schedule will be calculated and built to meet the diverse needs of the people to attract many types of passengers. Although the policy is to offer competitive ticket prices with aviation, the high-speed railway does not aim to eliminate or gain market share from aviation, but will contribute to redistributing the passenger transport market structure in the most reasonable way. Specifically, passenger cars will operate effectively on the 130-300 km route instead of having to travel 24 hours from the North to the South, which is dangerous as it is now; the railway will take on the transportation needs on routes from 300-800 km; for the remaining 800 km route onwards, aviation can promote its advantages,” emphasized a representative of the Ministry of Transport.

Ticket prices may continue to drop.

Dr. Pham The Anh, Economy Director of the Institute for Economic and Policy Research, analyzed: Vietnam's current per capita income is 3.000 USD/year. In about 30 years, if the current optimistic growth rate of 7%/year is maintained, per capita income may reach approximately 20.000 - 25.000 USD/year, still not reaching the income level of Japanese people who choose to travel by Shinkansen high-speed train every day. Therefore, the demand for high-speed train travel may be very low. However, in the recent period, aviation has had many fluctuations, airfares have increased too much, combined with weak infrastructure connecting to the airport, causing the travel time from home to the airport by road to be longer. Not to mention the increasingly common situation of flight delays. The journey from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City sometimes takes 4 - 5 hours, which is only about 1 - 2 hours faster than the time taken by high-speed train (in the future). Meanwhile, the train is more spacious, more comfortable, and ensures punctuality.

“Air travel is increasingly tiring for people, especially for flights that take off during rush hour. Therefore, if the high-speed train can guarantee a lower ticket price, about 2,5 - 3 million VND/round trip, the ability to compete with aviation is very good, even aviation will fall into a dangerous situation. Of course, the high investment rate and low ticket price mean a very high risk of loss, but with the current state of aviation, this risk will be greatly reduced. The high-speed train will also pull back the demand for travel, Travel of the people, instead of letting them switch to traveling abroad as is currently the case," Dr. Pham The Anh stated his opinion.

Agreeing, economist Nguyen Tri Hieu also said that the competitiveness of high-speed railways with aviation is real, based on advantages such as guaranteed train running time, convenient access to stations, more experiences of natural scenery and amenities, and good services equivalent to airplanes. In addition, having high-speed railways will solve the problem of freight costs, logistics costs, raise the country's position, and promote Vietnam's image in the international arena, thereby opening up many new opportunities for economic development.

However, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu is concerned that if the project implementation and management stages lead to capital increase, the total investment increases by at least 20% (like most transport infrastructure projects in recent times), then the ticket price will certainly be high, even more expensive. plane ticket. “Therefore, Goverment It is necessary to carefully calculate the loss compensation problem, and have incentive programs to ensure competitive ticket prices while the operation of the railway operator must still be effective. In the long term, high-speed rail will be a more popular means of transport than air travel, so it is best to reduce prices to about 50% of airfares," Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu suggested.

Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien (Nguyen Tat Thanh University) said that Vietnam's terrain stretches between the two ends of the country, so the demand for travel and freight transport is very large. This is different from many countries with different shapes. In principle, the higher the demand, the lower the cost per unit of product. The price of high-speed rail tickets is always cheaper than air tickets, which is the first advantage to bring competition and attract passengers. With freight transport, there are many types of goods that need to be transported quickly, with little loss, businesses will also prioritize choosing high-speed rail. "We can consider separating the investment in road surface or infrastructure from the cost of purchasing train cars, personnel when operating..., only depreciating the cost of purchasing train cars, receiving operations to calculate into the ticket price. Similar to the traffic routes previously invested by the state, there is no fee for people to use because it serves the socio-economic development of the country. Investing in high-cost infrastructure not only takes into account financial efficiency but also socio-economic efficiency for the country," Mr. Dien emphasized.

If we separate the cost of building railway infrastructure and the cost of equipment and operating personnel to calculate the structure into the most competitive ticket price, the exploitation will bring high efficiency when the number of people using it increases, contributing to promoting long-term economic growth.

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